In 2018, three major BJP-ruled states will go to the polls: Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh.

Further complicating matters is the Congress, resurgent under its new chief Rahul Gandhi, which may pose a stiff challenge to the Narendra Modi – Amit Shah.

With 230 Assembly seats and 29 Lok Sabha seats up for grabs, Madhya Pradesh, which usually goes to the polls in November-December, is perhaps the most important of all. With three consecutive victories, the challenge before the ruling BJP maintaining its winning streak while contending with the anti-incumbency factor both at the state (13 years of Shivraj Singh Chouhan rule) and the Centre (four years of Narendra Modi government).

Key Issue

Madhya Pradesh is largely a rural state. Crop failure in 2017 shows farmer crisis. The issue grabbed national headlines last June after farmers protest turned violent in Mandsaur. With a farm loan waiver not in sight, a report in Hindustan Times  stated that BJP’s failure to resolve the crisis may hit its rural vote bank.

The scam in Vyapam (a board which selects candidates for government posts through competitive exams), which was uncovered in 2013. A scholarship scam (also unearthed in 2013) threatened to also drag the chief minister into a Lokayukta investigation.

The Congress has been alleging that corruption is at its “peak” in Madhya Pradesh. The Leader of Opposition in the Assembly Ajay Singh claimed that multi-crore scams surfaced during the Shivraj regime.

The number of educated unemployed youth is rising. As per the 2017 economic survey report, at least 14.1 lakh youth are unemployed, of which nearly 12.9 lakh are educated.

31 districts during the 2017 monsoon season forced the government to declare 13 districts as drought-hit.

Key players in the fray this time

Shivraj Singh Chouhan

The three-time chief minister and the OBC face of the BJP is likely to fight for his fourth consecutive term. He is already the longest serving chief minister of the state. However, several reports of his imminent departure from state politics have been making the rounds after he did not attend the swearing-in ceremony of Gujarat chief minister Vijay Rupani.

Kailash Vijayvargiya

A six-time MLA and former cabinet minister, Vijayvargiya is currently a national general secretary of the BJP. He is also reportedly a Shivraj rival and a favourite of BJP president Amit Shah. He is also tipped to take over as the party unit chief in the upcoming organisational restructuring.

Jyotiraditya Scindia

The Lok Sabha MP from Guna and a former Union minister is being considered a prospective chief ministerial face of the Congress party. Congress recent win in the Chitrakoot Assembly by-election under his leadership has reportedly rejuvenated the party ahead of the Assembly elections. While he has the backing of senior leader Kamal Nath, infighting within the party may be major cause for worry.

Digvijaya Singh

The two-time chief minister is currently undertaking the 3,000-kilometre long Narmada Yatra. Though he maintains that it is a spiritual yatra, reports claim that his journey will cover at least 100 Assembly seats. According to India Today, Digvijaya is using the yatra as a platform to reconnect with his core electorate in the run-up to the November-December polls.