{"id":9637,"date":"2019-05-13T17:01:29","date_gmt":"2019-05-13T11:31:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/?p=9637"},"modified":"2019-05-13T17:01:29","modified_gmt":"2019-05-13T11:31:29","slug":"how-nda-upa-federal-front-and-others-are-likely-to-perform-a-game-called-possibilitics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/loksabhaelection2019\/how-nda-upa-federal-front-and-others-are-likely-to-perform-a-game-called-possibilitics\/","title":{"rendered":"How NDA, UPA, Federal Front and others are likely to perform : A game called possibilitics"},"content":{"rendered":"
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As in 2014, there is an animated buzz on alliances, pre- and post-poll, ahead of the Lok Sabha election.Then, a Narendra Modi wave flattened rivals, making alliances largely irrelevant. This time the opposition hopes a united front, with alliances in UP and Karnataka, will change the game. Prime Minister Modi remains BJP\u2019s poll mascot and chief vote-getter. His advantage as an \u201coutsider\u201d might have declined, but he tops popularity ratings and frames the election. Varying predictions from a hung House to a near majority for BJP make numbers a guessing game, casting regional leaders in key roles<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

NDA<\/h1>\n

POLL SCENARIOS<\/h3>\n
\n
\n

250+ seats<\/h3>\n

The Pulwama attack appears to have shifted the narrative from unemployment and farm distress and boosted Modi\u2019s image as a \u2018strong leader\u2019. It could push BJP\u2019s tally to within sniffing distance of a majority, and along with the support of allies, see him return for a second term<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

220-230<\/h3>\n

Ahead of 2014, there was a \u201c160 club\u201d inside BJP and outside as well, which believed that Modi\u2019s lack of \u201cacceptability\u201d will mean a compromise choice for PM. This has now been replaced by a \u201c220 club\u201d that similarly feels current and would-be allies will seek Modi\u2019s replacement. But BJP may well insist that Modi be PM or choose to sit in opposition<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

160-180<\/h3>\n

BJP may still look to lead the government with allies but the task becomes steeper. Regional parties willing to join the central government will seek a hard bargain. The number of \u201cfree radicals\u201d will be limited to parties like BJD, TRS, YSRCP. Some currently aligned against BJP may change sides, but these are not many. A third-front-type arrangement may look more probable<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

140-160<\/h3>\n

This number will mean Congress and other opposition parties have made significant gains. A low BJP number could set the stage for a Congress-led government. This result will almost certainly mean BJP sits in the opposition. It will still command numbers that are likely to be more than Congress. A large block of regional parties and Congress will, however, favour proponents of an anti-BJP coalition<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n

BJP LS SEATS IN 2014: 282<\/p>\n

ALLIANCE PARTNERS IN 2019<\/h3>\n

\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
R Ramadoss
\nPMK\u00a0<\/span>Tamil Nadu<\/span><\/div>\n
The PMK chose to be in the AIADMK-BJP camp. The party has been in UPA and NDA and its clout among Vanniyars in north Tamil Nadu makes it a valuable partner. The party is seen as ideologically neutral and can change preferences if the NDA fails to make it<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Nitish Kumar
\nJD(U)\u00a0<\/span>Bihar<\/span><\/div>\n
The Bihar CM ditched Lalu Prasad and patched up with BJP in a spectacular switch in mid-2017. But after that his renewed ties with BJP have been uneven, despite the parties sealing a seat pact for LS polls. He might see himself as a \u201cdark horse\u201d in case BJP falls well short of a majority<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Ram Vilas Paswan
\nLJP\u00a0<\/span>Bihar<\/span><\/div>\n
He is firmly in the NDA camp, having wrangled extra seats. He is unlikely to switch unless BJP is knocked out of the race. He has been part of United Front before and a realignment cannot be ruled out if he is needed by the opposition numbers game though this is not his first option<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Uddhav Thackeray
\nShiv Sena\u00a0<\/span>Maharashtra<\/span><\/div>\n
After targeting the Modi government and BJP despite being a ruling partner at the Centre and in Maharashtra, he has now made a U-turn and promised to show how thick an ally he can be. Worry about Sena\u2019s prospects without BJP in LS and, more crucially for him, state polls (due later this year) means Uddhav has no option but to stick to his promise<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
K Palaniswami
\nAIADMK\u00a0<\/span>Tamil Nadu<\/span><\/div>\n
Without Jayalalithaa, AIADMK is adrift lacking a leader. Will hope that allying with BJP would counter anti-incumbency and give him a stake at the Centre. Alliance with PMK will boost its vote. Will not be part of UPA or federal front as long as sworn rival DMK is a part of the alliance<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Parkash Singh Badal
\nAKALI DAL\u00a0<\/span>Punjab<\/span><\/div>\n
BJP\u2019s oldest ally is still struggling to quell the anger of its core voter base \u2014 the Sikhs \u2014 that drove it out of power in 2017. The three-day penance in December for \u2018inadvertent mistakes\u2019 did not help much. Sukhbir Singh Badal faced rebellion and dissidents formed SAD Taksali. But SAD remains a firm NDA ally<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Prafulla Mahanta
\nAGP\u00a0<\/span>Assam<\/span><\/div>\n
Two months after severing ties with the saffron party over the contentious citizenship bill, AGP had a change of heart on March 13, 2018. It went ahead and finalised an alliance with the BJP to keep the Congress out of Assam. Both parties remain mum on the bill.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Anupriya Patel
\nAPNA DAL\u00a0<\/span>Uttar Pradesh<\/span><\/div>\n
Apna Dal (S) headed by Anupriya Patel is a breakaway faction of Apna Dal and was quick to announce its alliance with the BJP on March 15, 2018. Patel will be contesting from Mirzapur constituency. The party has a following in Eastern UP and Bundelkhand areas of UP and considerable backing of the Kumri vote.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n

UPA<\/h1>\n
\n

POLL SCENARIOS<\/h3>\n
\n
\n

150+ seats<\/h3>\n

This looks a far cry at present and will need Congress to get the better of BJP in big states like Rajasthan, MP, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Gujarat where the two parties are face to face. This result will mean Rahul Gandhi could lead a non-NDA coalition<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

110-130<\/h3>\n

Congress will still be the largest non- BJP party by far and can still stake claim to leading a coalition government. This will be resisted by big regional players like TMC, SP and BSP, but other parties like Left, TDP, RJD, NC and DMK will support Rahul as PM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

75-100<\/h3>\n

This is thin ice as far as the leadership stakes go. This number may well mean a decisive lead for BJP and that may put Congress out of play. Even otherwise, a pre- or post-poll grouping of regional parties may insist on their own candidate though consensus on this is not easy<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n

CONG LS SEATS IN 2014: 44<\/p>\n

ALLIANCE PARTNERS IN 2019<\/h3>\n

\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
MK Stalin
\nDMK\u00a0<\/span>Tamil Nadu<\/span><\/div>\n
The new leader is firmly in command and has moved to seal alliance with Congress. He has won the family power struggle and has taken a strong anti-BJP line, opposing the new 10% quota. DMK has been part of NDA before but will prefer a federal front\/Cong regime<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Vaiko
\nMDMK\u00a0<\/span>Tamil Nadu<\/span><\/div>\n
A declining force, the Tamil leader has patched up with DMK. Ironically, he had broken with Karunanidhi over nepotism and now finds himself in Stalin\u2019s company. He is unlikely to switch to the Modi camp despite having been part of NDA earlier<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Omar Abdullah
\nNC\u00a0<\/span>Jammu & Kashmir<\/span><\/div>\n
The National Conference is strongly aligned against BJP with the saffron party pushing a hard line in Jammu and Kashmir. Can be part of a federal front\/Cong-led govt. NC\u2019s primary goal is to get the better of rival PDP in the valley and ensure it is frontrunner in the J&K assembly polls<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Lalu Prasad
\nRJD\u00a0<\/span>Bihar<\/span><\/div>\n
Being in jail seriously handicaps this intrepid politician. He cannot be part of NDA and will work for a Cong-led government with federal front as second choice. He needs to have clout at the Centre to help address cases filed against him and his family by CBI and enforcement directorate<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
H D Kumarasamy
\nJD(S)\u00a0<\/span>Karnataka<\/span><\/div>\n
The \u201chelpless\u201d CM of Karnataka has had the better of ally Congress and BJP. He has driven a hard seat-sharing bargain with Congress to cement his position, which could be threatened by a BJP win. If a Cong-led alliance cannot form govt, he\u2019s likely to go with a federal front<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Sharad Pawar
\nNCP\u00a0<\/span>Maharashtra<\/span><\/div>\n
The Maratha warhorse has announced he will not contest the LS polls. While he partners Congress in Maharashtra, he may see a larger role on the national stage if Congress slips<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

Federal Front<\/h1>\n

POLL SCENARIOS<\/h3>\n
\n
\n

200-220 seats<\/h3>\n

This would be the best possible scenario for a federal\/third front government. Though many regional parties are outside discussions for such a front, some of them can join a federal front. The tough task for such a group will be choosing a leader<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

150-170 seats<\/h3>\n

This will still be an excellent result that pegs back BJP and Congress numbers. Proponents of a federal front can still bargain for a leader from their ranks with anyone who wins a big clutch of seats \u2013 Mamata, Akhilesh, Mayawati \u2013 in the fray for PM<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

140-160 seats<\/h3>\n

Such a result can mean either BJP or Congress have done well. It will mean playing a supporting role in a coalition if Congress does well, sitting in opposition or mending fences with NDA in case BJP is need of partners. Being coalition partners of Congress is best option<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Mayawati
\nBSP\u00a0<\/span>Uttar Pradesh<\/span><\/div>\n
Assiduously kept away from federal front and UPA meetings despite being anti-BJP. She is concentrating on UP where she hopes an alliance with SP will reverse BSP\u2019s sinking fortunes. After a wipe-out in 2014 LS election and mere 19 seats in 2017 assembly, this is make or break. Has partnered BJP before<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Mamata Banerjee
\nTMC\u00a0<\/span>West Bengal<\/span><\/div>\n
Nothing stirs the Trinamool leader more than the prospect of a street fight. She is looking to set the pace at the national level by promoting a federal front of regional parties while taking on a resurgent BJP at home. She is a prospective PM, looking to deny Congress leadership if possible<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Akhilesh Yadav
\nSP\u00a0<\/span>Uttar Pradesh<\/span><\/div>\n
Like Mayawati, hopes to get back in the game in UP with the SP-BSP alliance. He will prefer a federal front arrangement and hope that numbers will give him a strong say at the Centre. Being part of a Cong-led government is a difficult choice as his main aim is to regain lost glory in UP<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Ajit Singh
\nRASHTRIYA LOK DAL\u00a0<\/span>Uttar Pradesh<\/span><\/div>\n
The Jat leader is with the SP-BSP and is ranged against BJP which has wooed his community assiduously. Though not strongly ideological, he will not find it easy to ally with BJP. Was part of UPA II cabinet and can be part of a Congress-led government though his preference will be a federal front<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Chandrababu Naidu
\nTDP\u00a0<\/span>Andhra Pradesh<\/span><\/div>\n
His alliance with BJP broke amid bitter recriminations. His attempt at a grand alliance in Telangana by befriending Congress failed. He is now battling to save home turf in AP where LS and assembly polls are simultaneous. He prefers federal front, can join UPA. BJP seems ruled out<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

<\/h3>\n

Free Radicals<\/h1>\n

NON-ALIGNED, CAN GO EITHER WAY<\/h3>\n
\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
K Chandrashekhar Rao
\nTRS\u00a0<\/span>Telangana<\/span><\/div>\n
He gambled on advancing the Telangana assembly poll and won. He is well placed to cement his supremacy in the state\u2019s 17 LS constituencies and like BJD, is not part of any opposition alliance. He can be open to doing business with either NDA, UPA or federal front, driving a hard bargain for his state<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Naveen Patnaik
\nBJD\u00a0<\/span>Odisha<\/span><\/div>\n
The most enigmatic of regional leaders, he has kept away from opposition parleys even as BJP emerged as the second party in Odisha. He also faces simultaneous LS and assembly polls, and winning a record fifth term as CM is his priority. He can ally with both NDA or UPA, but will prefer to be neutral<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Jaganmohan Reddy
\nYSR CONG\u00a0<\/span>Andhra Pradesh<\/span><\/div>\n
In the shade for much of the past five years, he has emerged strongly to take on TDP. He will not be in any front which has TDP. He may be comfortable with NDA post-poll as ties with Congress brass are strained. Yet, he can strike a deal with Congress if he gets his terms<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Om Prakash Chuatala
\nINLD\u00a0<\/span>Haryana<\/span><\/div>\n
INLD, led by Om Prakash Chautala, has split with son Ajay Chautala forming his party (JJP) with sons Dushyant and Digvijay. The breakaway party debuted well in the Jind bypoll. Both factions are open to aligning with NDA while Congress is a less preferred choice<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n

NON-ALIGNED, BUT WON\u2019T BACK BJP<\/h3>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Sitaram Yechury
\nCPM\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n
CPM is keen to see itself as a key organiser of opposition unity. But it cannot support a national level front given its electoral contest with Congress in Kerala. So while it is likely to ally with Congress in West Bengal, it is unwilling to be part of a formal alliance that has Trinamool as part of it as well<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Mehbooba Mufti
\nPDP\u00a0<\/span>Jammu & Kashmir<\/span><\/div>\n
PDP suffered a body blow when BJP broke ties and ended the coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir in June 2018. Catering to its Valley base, PDP has sought to regain its soft separatist base but has been hit by desertions. Will not ally with BJP, will not share space with NC<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\"img\"<\/p>\n
Arvind Kejriwal
\nAAP\u00a0<\/span>Delhi<\/span><\/div>\n
AAP says it tried to enter a pre-poll pact with Congress but was rebuffed. It has announced six of seven candidates in Delhi, but has kept the door open for further negotiations. He prefers a federal front but may not be averse to joining or backing UPA. He won\u2019t have any truck with BJP<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Credit & Source : Times of India\u00a0 https:\/\/timesofindia . indiatimes . com<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As in 2014, there is an animated buzz on alliances, pre- and post-poll, ahead of the Lok Sabha election.Then, a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[112],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-loksabhaelection2019"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paZdga-2vr","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9637","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9637"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9637\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9639,"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9637\/revisions\/9639"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9637"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9637"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.oyspa.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9637"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}